Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Technical Exchange in Eastern Africa Workshop Report

In 2005, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society published its assessment of key gaps in the use of climate information for health, agriculture, water and other sectors in countries across Africa. The results from the report were less than stellar. After an extensive review of use of climate information in the development sectors of Africa, the authors concluded that the continent suffered from “market atrophy” – the reinforcing effect of zero effective supply of climate information and zero effective demand. Twelve years later, organizations such as the IRI, CSRD, CCAFS, ICPAC, and UKMO have made enormous strides at increasing both climate information supply and demand through the implementation of climate data platforms and the organizing of capacity-building seminars. In order to capitalize on the presence of the many climate and sector experts from across the IGAD region, the organizations above held a joint event, the Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Technical Exchange workshop, in Zanzibar on August 23-25, 2017, immediately after the 47th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF47). The workshop was designed to offer potential and existing users a platform to voice their needs for the development and better use of historical, monitored and forecast information for the management of drought across climate-sensitive sectors

Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?

Preparedness saves lives. Forecasts can help improve preparedness by triggering early actions as part of pre-defined protocols under the Forecast-based Financing (FbF) approach; however it is essential to understand the skill of a forecast before using it as a trigger. In order to support the development of early-action protocols over Kenya, we evaluate the 33 heavy rainfall advisories (HRAs) issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) during 2015–2019. The majority of HRAs warn counties which subsequently receive heavy rainfall within the forecast window. We also find a significant improvement in the advisory ability to anticipate flood events over time, with particularly high levels of skill in recent years. For instance actions with a 2-week lifetime based on advisories issued in 2015 and 2016 would have failed to anticipate nearly all recorded flood events in that period, whilst actions in 2019 would have anticipated over 70 % of the instances of flooding at the county level. When compared against the most significant flood events over the period which led to significant loss of life, all three such periods during 2018 and 2019 were preceded by HRAs, and in these cases the advisories accurately warned the specific counties for which significant impacts were recorded. By contrast none of the four significant flooding events in 2015–2017 were preceded by advisories. This step change in skill may be due to developing forecaster experience with synoptic patterns associated with extremes as well as access to new dynamical prediction tools that specifically address extreme event probability; for example, KMD access to the UK Met Office Global Hazard Map was introduced at the end of 2017. Overall we find that KMD HRAs effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding and can be a vital source of information for early preparedness. However a lack of spatial detail on flood impacts and broad probability ranges limit their utility for systematic FbF approaches. We conclude with suggestions for making the HRAs more useful for FbF and outline the developing approach to flood forecasting in Kenya

Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action

Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision-making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting tool is assessed in the present paper in terms of its ability to provide skilful information of the likeli hood of drought impacts on crops and pasture within a timeframe that allows for anticipatory action. The Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT) tool provides forecasts of seasonal mean soil moisture and the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). TAMSAT-ALERT metrics were found to be strongly correlated with pasture availability and maize yield in Kenya and provided skilful forecasts early in key seasons, allowing sufficient time for preparatory actions. Incorporating TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts in a layered approach, with actions triggered by spatiotemporally varying triggers and fundamentally informed by humanitarian actors, will provide reliable information on the likelihood of drought, ultimately mitigating food insecurity

Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya

Drought and food security crises heighten risks to lives and livelihoods in East Africa. In recent years, a shift towards acting in advance of such events has gained momentum, notably among the humanitarian and development community. This shift is premised on tools that link climate forecasts with pre-agreed actions and funding, known as Forecast-based Action (FbA), or anticipatory action more widely. While FbA approaches have been developed by a number of humanitarian agencies, the key to scaling-up is mainstreaming these approaches into national risk management systems. This paper addresses this gap in the context of drought risk management in Kenya. We analyse Kenya's current drought management system to assess the potential usability of climate forecast information within the existing system, and outline steps towards improved usability of climate information. Further, we note the critical importance of enabling institutions and reliable financing to ensure that information can be consistently used to trigger early action. We discuss the implications of this for scaling-up FbA into national risk management systems

Towards a Common Vision of Climate Security in Kenya

The security implications of climate variability and change, commonly referred to as the climate-security nexus, have been widely discussed in both policy circles and academia. While climate is rarely the sole cause of conflict, it can exacerbate conflict risks and outcomes by affecting societies’ economic performance, amplifying patterns of marginalization and exclusion, and challenging the capacity of already strained institutions (von Uexkull & Buhaug, 2021). Because of its significant dependence on rain-fed agriculture, with high seasonal variations in the availability of water and pasture and high levels of political fragility, the Horn of Africa has often been portrayed as one of the regions more likely to suffer from climate-related political instability (Krampe et al., 2020). Kenya, in particular, has been the subject of several studies by research institutes and international organizations that explore whether and how climate change may affect peace and security in the country. While climate impacts will increasingly have destabilizing effects on societies and communities across Kenya, the question of how this is happening remains partially unaddressed. This report presents and summarizes the findings of the first ClimBeR Climate Security Workshop held in Nairobi on the 22nd and 23rd of June 2022

Extreme Rainfall and Flooding over Central Kenya Including Nairobi City during the Long-Rains Season 2018: Causes, Predictability, and Potential for Early Warning and Actions

The Long-Rains wet season of March–May (MAM) over Kenya in 2018 was one of the wettest on record. This paper examines the nature, causes, impacts, and predictability of the rainfall events, and considers the implications for flood risk management. The exceptionally high monthly rainfall totals in March and April resulted from several multi-day heavy rainfall episodes, rather than from distinct extreme daily events. Three intra-seasonal rainfall events in particular resulted in extensive flooding with the loss of lives and livelihoods, a significant displacement of people, major disruption to essential services, and damage to infrastructure. The rainfall events appear to be associated with the combined effects of active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events in MJO phases 2–4, and at shorter timescales, tropical cyclone events over the southwest Indian Ocean. These combine to drive an anomalous westerly low-level circulation over Kenya and the surrounding region, which likely leads to moisture convergence and enhanced convection. We assessed how predictable such events over a range of forecast lead times. Long-lead seasonal forecast products for MAM 2018 showed little indication of an enhanced likelihood of heavy rain over most of Kenya, which is consistent with the low predictability of MAM Long-Rains at seasonal lead times. At shorter lead times of a few weeks, the seasonal and extended-range forecasts provided a clear signal of extreme rainfall, which is likely associated with skill in MJO prediction. Short lead weather forecasts from multiple models also highlighted enhanced risk. The flood response actions during the MAM 2018 events are reviewed. Implications of our results for forecasting and flood preparedness systems include: (i) Potential exists for the integration of sub-seasonal and short-term weather prediction to support flood risk management and preparedness action in Kenya, notwithstanding the particular challenge of forecasting at small scales. (ii) We suggest that forecasting agencies provide greater clarity on the difference in potentially useful forecast lead times between the two wet seasons in Kenya and East Africa. For the MAM Long-Rains, the utility of sub-seasonal to short-term forecasts should be emphasized; while at seasonal timescales, skill is currently low, and there is the challenge of exploiting new research identifying the primary drivers of variability. In contrast, greater seasonal predictability of the Short-Rains in the October–December season means that greater potential exists for early warning and preparedness over longer lead times. (iii) There is a need for well-developed and functional forecast-based action systems for heavy rain and flood risk management in Kenya, especially with the relatively short windows for anticipatory action during MAM